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The rupiah on Monday (11 / 1) is estimated to be strengthened. Heavy flow of incoming funds and the extension of the duration of low interest rates the Fed, a provocation.

Ariston Tjendra, foreign exchange analyst from Monex Investindo Futures predict the movement of the rupiah today will still be stronger because of the momentum is still positive movement. Penopangnya still one of the flow of heavy capital inflow into the domestic market.

"Today, the rupiah will move in 9130-9350 range. Meanwhile, this week the rupiah will move in the range of 9030-9400, "he told INILAH.COM, in Jakarta.

According to him, the U.S. dollar was still depressed after discharge notes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting of the Fed (FOMC) held last December 2009. These Minutes confirmed to prolong the duration of low interest rates. "The problem, the situation has not allowed for higher interest rates because of high unemployment," he explained.

In addition there still exists disagreement among Fed officials about the stimulus itself, withdraw all or just add to it. In March 2010, there will be buying back mortgage-backed security (MBS) to help the housing sector in order to decrease the level of breakdown of credit. "There was a request that it be continued and there was also asked to stop. Therefore, an increase in the fed funds rate can not be sure when, "he added.

The strengthening of the rupiah also supported foreign exchange reserves which reached record highs in the level of U.S. $ 66.1 billion. Meanwhile, external factors are also conducive to the strengthening of these currencies of Indonesia, following the expectation that the fed funds rate was raised a long time. "If previously is expected to rise half of this year, now expected next year," he said.

On the other hand, the strengthening of the rupiah is also a prop from the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar. U.S. unemployment data is still good, triggering risk appetite in the market. Thus, the flow of capital inflow will continue to flow freely into the domestic market. The U.S. unemployment rate in December will be slightly higher than the previous month. In-forecast 10.1% to December 2009 from 10% in November. "Despite stagnant but the trend unemployment rate decreases," he concluded.

On the other hand, foreign exchange analyst from Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) Sunarto said, very strong capital inflow due to the perception of economic growth in 2010. Moreover, in 2009, Indonesia's financial market performance against the U.S. dollar in third place. "Trading day this week, the rupiah will tend to strengthen the range of 9200-9250 per dollar," he said when contacted separately.

While China began to do the tightening of liquidity due to the impact of government stimulus programs. Currently Bamboo Curtain State government had already started to reduce intervention by the withdrawal of stimulus. Implementation of free trade area agreement (FTA) China-ASEAN also cause demand higher yuan exchange rate.

"Perpetrators choose yuan market for trade transactions in the region. Yuan revaluation caused Asian regional currencies other up, "said Sunarto.

From domestic, low inflation rate is expected to continue again in January. This makes the rupiah have a very strong support for the rally and continued appreciation. Which must be observed is that oil prices continue to rise. "However, the range is still not lead to pressure on domestic inflation," he explained.

Sunarto rate, inflation today is more due to demand for goods and services, is indication of economic activity means that the global recovery going. Inflationary pressure is also not merely due to price increases. "Although this is not to worry about, because oil prices are up to touch U.S. $ 85 per barrel, Indonesia had experienced in which the state budget can tolerate," ulasnya.

Exchange rate of rupiah in the foreign exchange spot market interbank Jakarta, Friday (8 / 1) rose 20 points (0.216%) against the U.S. dollar into 9210/9220.

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